Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle

    The Chip Insider®
    December 17, 2020: Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle ...
    G. Dan Hutcheson - Andrea Lati - Risto Puhakka
    VLSI wants to wish everyone a Happy Holiday season. Well, we've just ended a crazy, unpredictable year. It should have been a recovery year, but early-on COVID started shutting down the world and then on top of the election, President Trump was trying to shut down China. The picture as we headed toward the year's exit was one where one sign warned 'LEFT LANE CLOSED' and next to it was another that read 'RIGHT LANE ENDS' ... and we just blew right past it.

    No forecast could have predicted this last December and neither did VLSI. Here’s what was expected as written here at this time last year: "In 2020, ICs are expected to grow +9%, as memory recovers and 5G adds growth, while equipment will climb a more sedate +5%. Next year's drivers are expected to be: Central Banks pouring Vodka in the Punchbowl, China, 5G, the Win 7 EoL refresh, 7/10nm demand ramp, Memory Price Elasticity, ALD, and EUV."

    With 11 months of data in for 2020, VLSI sees IC growth of +8% and equipment at +17%. IC growth was within a percent, while equipment blew out expectations. At least we got the sign right, which our competitors missed this metric for the second year in a row. Next year's drivers are expected to be: The "better normal" buildout of IT Infrastructure, the 5nm demand ramp, memory capacity buildout, and Central Banks pouring Vodka in the Punchbowl. Potential disruptors are expected to be Government stimulus packages, the COVID bump turning out to be a roman candle, fallout from the US/China decoupling, and the potential for a Made-in-China capacity glut.

    Meanwhile, we'll hope Santa will bring our industry a great New Year where all the earnings beat expectations, all the guidance turns out to be low, and everyone gains market share. Statistical anomalies aside, we trust you, your family, and friends will have a well-deserved holiday and use these times to bring everyone together. We certainly wish you the happiest of holidays.

    We treasure your support and confidence in us and will do everything possible to be a positive part of keeping our industry on track.

    Just to let you know, VLSIresearch's offices will be closed for its end-of-year shut down starting at 11 AM PST on December 18. We will reopen Monday January 4, 2021. We will be checking e-mail sporadically and our websites may be down at times due to annual maintenance by IT.
    Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle

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