Intelligence to make better decisions faster
Intelligence to make better decisions faster

 

How 2015 Semiconductor Forecasts went from Positive Negative

 

In recent weeks, multiple forecasters have gone to the dark side with their semiconductor forecasts. On October 21, 2015, IC Insights issued its first negative forecast for the year of -1%. Two weeks earlier — on October 9, 2015 — Gartner issued had its first negative forecast for the year of 0.8%, forecasting an oversupply of DRAM that will last into 2016. Both organizations placed the blame on DRAMs, China’s economy, and the strong American dollar. Two-and-a-half months earlier — on July, 2015 — VLSIresearch had issued its first negative forecast for the year of -0.5%, under the title, “The bear is back and ready to pounce.”

 

To learn more, check out VLSI’s 3Q15 Semiconductor Market Update with Andrea Lati and Dan Hutcheson at weSRCH. In it they talk about it unfolded and what were the early warning signs. Here are some of them:

 

2014:

January 2014: China’s economic slowdown first becomes a news item which.

July 2014: Analysts predict dollar strengthening to year-end.

July through October 2014: CPPI falls steeply — an early warning sign but then bottoms for the holiday run. Oil prices had also fallen over this period and well into 2015.

 

2015:

January 2015: CPPI resumes fall at warning level rates. VLSI’s Semiconductor Analytics (SA) service issues first warning.

April 2015: VLSI SA reports 1Q15 annual growth significantly lower than 2014’s.

July 2015: VLSI reports negative annual growth for 2Q15. Issues first negative forecast.

September 2015: VLSI reports 3Q15 annual growth is more negative than 2Q’s.

 

More information about The Chip Insider™ is available here:

                                          https://www.vlsiresearch.com/public/cmrs/detail.html?mod=prod_1_tci

 

More information about the ForecastPro is available here:

                                        https://www.vlsiresearch.com/public/cmrs/detail.html?mod=forecastpro

 

More information about Semiconductor Analytics is available here:

                                                                                            https://www.vlsiresearch.com/public/sa/

 

The contents of this release are approved for use by media for news purposes identifying VLSIresearch as the source. No advertising or promotional use of this release by corporations can be used without VLSIresearch approval. All trademarks, service marks, and logos are the property of VLSI Research Inc or their respective owners.

 

About VLSIresearch

VLSIresearch is an award-winning provider of market research and economic analysis on the technical, business, and economic aspects within semiconductor, nanotechnology, and related industries. VLSIresearch provides intelligence for faster and better decision making in the areas of semiconductors, photovoltaics, LEDs, manufacturing, materials, and critical subsystems.  VLSIresearch was founded in 1976. Learn more at www.vlsiresearch.com.

 

Contact: Risto Puhakka| email: analyst @ vlsiresearch.com | ph:408.453.8844

VLSIresearch | Ph: 408.453.8844 | 2290 North First Street Suite 202 San Jose, CA 95131

 

… intelligence to make better decisions faster

VLSIresearch.com          ChipHistory.org           weSRCH.com

        TCI_VR_Gn_2015_surprise_downturn

 

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