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How 2015 Semiconductor Forecasts went from Positive Negative
In recent weeks, multiple forecasters have gone to the dark side with their semiconductor forecasts. On October 21, 2015, IC Insights issued its first negative forecast for the year of -1%. Two weeks earlier — on October 9, 2015 — Gartner issued had its first negative forecast for the year of 0.8%, forecasting an oversupply of DRAM that will last into 2016. Both organizations placed the blame on DRAMs, China’s economy, and the strong American dollar. Two-and-a-half months earlier — on July, 2015 — VLSIresearch had issued its first negative forecast for the year of -0.5%, under the title, “The bear is back and ready to pounce.”
To learn more, check out VLSI’s 3Q15 Semiconductor Market Update with Andrea Lati and Dan Hutcheson at weSRCH. In it they talk about it unfolded and what were the early warning signs. Here are some of them:
January 2014: China’s economic slowdown first becomes a news item which.
July 2014: Analysts predict dollar strengthening to year-end.
July through October 2014: CPPI falls steeply — an early warning sign but then bottoms for the holiday run. Oil prices had also fallen over this period and well into 2015.
January 2015: CPPI resumes fall at warning level rates. VLSI’s Semiconductor Analytics (SA) service issues first warning.
April 2015: VLSI SA reports 1Q15 annual growth significantly lower than 2014’s.
July 2015: VLSI reports negative annual growth for 2Q15. Issues first negative forecast.
September 2015: VLSI reports 3Q15 annual growth is more negative than 2Q’s.
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