In recent weeks, multiple forecasters have gone
to the dark side with their semiconductor forecasts. On October 21, 2015, IC
Insights issued its first negative forecast for the year of -1%. Two weeks earlier — on October 9, 2015
— Gartner issued had its first negative forecast for the year of 0.8%,
forecasting an oversupply of DRAM that will last into 2016. Both
organizations placed the blame on DRAMs, China’s economy, and the strong
American dollar. Two-and-a-half months
earlier — on July, 2015 — VLSIresearch had issued its first negative
forecast for the year of -0.5%, under the title, “The bear is back and ready
To learn more, check out VLSI’s 3Q15
Semiconductor Market Update with Andrea Lati and Dan Hutcheson at weSRCH. In it they talk
about it unfolded and what were the early warning signs. Here are some of
January 2014: China’s economic slowdown first
becomes a news item which.
July 2014: Analysts predict dollar strengthening
July through October 2014: CPPI falls steeply —
an early warning sign but then bottoms for the holiday run. Oil prices had
also fallen over this period and well into 2015.
January 2015: CPPI resumes fall at warning level
rates. VLSI’s Semiconductor Analytics (SA) service issues first warning.
April 2015: VLSI SA reports 1Q15 annual growth
significantly lower than 2014’s.
July 2015: VLSI reports negative annual growth
for 2Q15. Issues first negative forecast.
September 2015: VLSI reports 3Q15 annual growth
is more negative than 2Q’s.
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