Semiconductor sales moving to recession

    Semiconductor Analytics: April 9, 2020
    G. Dan Hutcheson
    Semiconductor sales appear to be moving into recession territory based on March's IC revenues over the last 3 weeks as a result of the impact of the Coronavirus. While similar in scale to the impact of the Sendai earthquake, COVID-19 is much more volatile. Monthly revisions showed impact on semiconductor sales was much worse than previous forecasts. The quarter ended with 1Q20/1Q19 Semiconductor sales growth positive for NAND and Logic ICs. But DRAM was down double digits, with Auto, Analog & Power following with single digits results.

    The good news was Semiconductor Supply-Demand rose to Balanced last week, as wafer fabs started the early ramp to the holidays. Foundry jumped two full levels and Analog & Power one. DRAM, NAND, IDM, and OSATs held with no measurable change.

    Coronavirus Semiconductor Market Watch
    The 9-week cumulative impact of COVID-19 on the semiconductor market since the WHO declared the emergency, while similar to the Sendai Earthquake, has been much more volatile. The cumulative effect on IC sales has been well below their 5-year TMA and very dependent on ASP swings with unit shipments down double digits.