What happens when it's over
April 10, 2020 — Strategy and Tactics: What happens when it's over WildPhotons: I am FEAR ...
G. Dan Hutcheson
What happens when it's over:
I'm sure you've seen the bad news: jobless claims in the United States totaled 6.6M last week, which works out to 10% unemployment and is already at peak levels seen in the 2008 Great Recession and this total is likely to get worse before it gets better. Now there are some big differences between now and then: the U.S. is going to inject into the economy amounts that equal 96% of the Government's budget and is 20% of the real GDP that was expected for 2020. This is far greater than what was spent in 2008 and the money is going to go far better places where it will be spent — not parked like back then. But it's even bigger than that. The Coronavirus is changing history in ways we haven't seen since WWII. The difference will be that instead of the auto being at the center of it all, it will be the semiconductor. I show you why in this Chip Insider.
Decision Time is Here:
April is a very critical month of the year, because OEMs and Fabless companies need to commit to the Christmas build cycle now. So ...
Coronavirus Semiconductor Sales Watch:
... Looking at total quarterly, monthly, and four-week moving averages, it's clear we've moved back into a recession... The bottom line is the Coronavirus has put the semiconductor industry in recession territory. But, while in the range, it will take at least another quarter to turn into a full-blown recession.
Important ChipChirpsTM Facts from the Far Side of Semiconductors ... ChipChirpsTM are short notifications from VLSI's analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI's App for Android and iOS:
NEW: COVID-19 vs Semiconductor Equipment Subsystems with John West
COVID-19 & the Semi Value Chain
with Risto Puhakka.
Coronavirus impact on the semi value chain with Andrea Lati.
Metrology and Inspection's increasing importance with Peter Jenkins of Infinitesima.
weVISION Videos are available as downloadable podcasts on VLSI's Smartphone app.
"The only thing we have to fear is...fear itself —
nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes
needed efforts to convert retreat into advance
— Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1933 inaugural address