Semiconductor sales have been at double-digit y/y growth rates for 6 weeks. They remain above the same period in the peak year of 2018, while the 3Q20 Nowcast pulled back up to +20%, and the COVID slump finished forming an inverse W. The big question is: Will this counter-cyclicality continue with a soft 4Q? The signals for a drop are there: the bullhorn shape of the y/y growth channel and a roll-over of the 52-week Moving Average.
Focusing on the overall IC segments picture this week, there is a general decline in sales growth for DRAM, NAND, and Logic semiconductors. But, all three are very positive. Analog & Power is negative, but stable. Auto, while also negative, has shown steady improvement since mid-July.
Semiconductor Supply & Demand stayed tight last week. DRAM improved, Analog & Power loosened. NAND, IDM, Foundry, and OSAT were unchanged.