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    SemiWEEK: COVID-19 Concerns shift from Supply-side to Demand-side. Forecasting in uncertain times; Stocks rocketed

      Andrea Lati
     13th-Apr-2020
    Description:

    Visibility is low and the seas are rough. Order activity for semiconductor equipment pulled out of the dive, jumping nearly two points to 58 degrees. Despite the improvement, visibility for chipmakers and equipment suppliers is limited due to ongoing supply chain issues and end-demand worries. While the supply chain issues will subside with the easing of lockdowns, the near-term and mid-term impact of the pandemic on the economy will be substantial, resulting in a sizable downside pressure for chip the industry in 2020. The Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) extended its decline. Production and Capacity Plan: Production is falling as industry braces for impact from the pandemic. Semiconductor sales appear to be moving into recession territory based on March’s IC revenues over the last 3 weeks as a result of the impact of the Coronavirus. While similar in scale to the impact of the Sendai earthquake, COVID-19 is much more volatile. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19 Closed the quarter in the black. Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 62˚ F Chilly. IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Balanced. Electronics Pricing Trend: Rising. Notebooks, Smartphones, and Consumer Electronics have a seasonal inversion driven by WAHE (Work-at-Home Economy). COVID-19 Concerns shift from Supply-side to Demand-side. Forecasting in uncertain times. VLSI's Coronavirus Semiconductor Market Watch: Semiconductor sales slowed significantly last week, as logistics issues from COVID-19 slowed OEM shipment levels. Even though IC sales were down 11% Y/Y last week, the 8-week cumulative impact of COVID-19 on the semiconductor market since the WHO declared the emergency continued to attenuate… So far, the impact of COVID-19 has mostly been to lower units and raise IC prices. The cumulative distortion for unit shipments since week-0 is more than 20% below seasonal levels and prices are up well over 20%. Manufacturing Status: Most fabs … Concerns have shifted from supply-side issues like logistics to demand-side … the rest of the year is dependent on macroeconomic issues. The perennial ‘L’ versus ‘V’ shaped cycle arguments have returned with the V-shapers winning last week and the L-shapers dominating this week after U.S. unemployment jumped to a total 10M claims over the last two weeks… Comments, Questions & Answers: Moore’s Law Slowing? A refresh to the transistor production graph and how we count transistors? Risk vs Uncertainty: Defining the difference and how to forecast in the presence of each… Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty: Know which is the basis behind any decision that needs to be made. Misreading situations of risk versus uncertainty in decision making can result in bad decisions because the best method under one can be the worst under another. It’s how the world’s financial system almost collapsed between 2007 and 2008 …. VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices rocketed this week along with the market. Semiconductors +11%, Equipment +14%, EDA +11%, Electronic Materials +14%. Semiconductor Stock Index led up 11.1% by MaxLinear. Semiconductor Equipment Stock led up 14.5% by FormFactor. EDA Stock Index was led up 10.9% by Cadence. Electronics Materials Stock Index led up 13.8% by DuPont and Cabot Microelectronics. Hottest Stocks: MaxLinear, DuPont, ON Semiconductor, Amkor, Infineon, and Cabot Microelectronics.

    Views: 1542
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors