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    Semiweek: Consistent Semiconductor Equipment Market Growth Has Returned; Foundry & IDM Capital Expenditure; Stocks Fell

      Andrea Lati
     Mar 1, 2021

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    It's red hot out there!
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment stayed red HOT, hitting a sizzling 96 degrees last week
    • It does not get much better than this; all indicators are pointing to a boom
    • Delivery and equipment availability are the only issues as temperatures in SOC Computing and SOC Mobile approach triple-digit levels
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index surged again
    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    turned up last week, after two weeks of decline. Focusing on IC market growth this week, 2021 has kicked off on a strong growth path. Unlike the last 2 years, DRAM, NAND, Logic, Auto, Analog & Power are in a tight growth pattern. 2020 was the year for Auto ICs to sing the blues. Spot shortages in Auto and Consumer continue to fog up the picture. Despite news of an Auto IC shortage, this market is not so hot because of spot shortage induced cutbacks.
    Semi Market results from last week:
    • Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Hot, Hotter
    • IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Shortage
    • IC Wafer Fab Production +20% y/y
    • Electronics Prices are declining

    The Chip Insider

    Strategy and Tactics: Consistent Semiconductor Equipment Market Growth has returned:

    Why Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Market Growth Returned: And why the future may be brighter than you think. When analysts attempt to forecast markets, they typically run regressions of macro factors such as the economy, electronics, and semiconductors... Regression assumes constancy of statistical relationships … Any cursory look at real data blows this assumption right out of the water. Over the last decade it became popular to believe semiconductors and chip equipment markets had become tightly coupled to the macroeconomy.

    But then COVID-19 blew this out of the water and the term ‘macro-decoupling’ became popular with the added assumption it won’t last... While this may have proved right in the short-term, I am no longer sure it is the whole story. Macro-decoupling does not explain why the 10-year average annual growth in the semiconductor equipment market rose from a 3% bottom in 2009 to 15% in 2019.

    Sometimes single-event shocks to the system hide far more systematic changes to relationships buried deep in the depths of the data. I believe this is one of those times and that the effect is far more fundamental than a simple probabilistic change between data series. If this is the case, there also needs to be fundamental changes in strategic decision making by senior executives…

    Semiconductor Manufacturing:
    Foundry & IDM Capital Expenditures
    • Changes Since Last Forecast
    • Company Focus
    • Advanced Logic & Foundry
    • DRAM & NAND
    • Semiconductor Manufacturing Capex
    • VLSI’s View

    Chip History Center
    How Japan Lost its Semiconductor Industry: The 5 strategic causes behind the long-term failure of Japan’s Semiconductor industry are covered in this paper. Some were of their own making. Others were macroeconomic tsunamis that could not have been avoided. But they could have been adapted to, as some companies did. It also provides the lessons that can be learned from the errors made.
    How Power, Performance, Area, and Cost relate to Moore's Law: Sunlin Chou discusses how managing these parameters have evolved over time in this 2004 conversation. As semiconductor chips get larger it would seem they would consume more power. Learn why this is not the case. Also, the new issues that were emerging as semiconductors crossed the 100nm barrier.
    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices fell this week along with the market.
    • Semiconductors -4%
    • Equipment -4%
    • EDA -4%
    • Electronic Materials -4%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index sunk 4.2%, SK hynix and MaxLinear claimed two of the top six stock spots with SK hynix being this week’s biggest winner.
    IDM -1.2%
    Foundry & OSAT -6.4%
    Fabless & Fablite -4.5%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index sunk 4.2%, Nikon and Kulicke & Soffa were the only companies to finish in positive territory while Tokyo Electron remained flat.
    WFE -3.2%
    Test -8.4%
    Assembly -4.2%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock Index fell 3.8%.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index fell 3.6%, CMC Materials came out on top.
    Hottest Stocks: SK hynix, MaxLinear, Nikon, Kulicke & Soffa, CMC Materials, and Cadence

    Views: 928
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors