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    SemiWEEK: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why it failed. Has Moore's Law slowed?; 2019 Top Semi Equipment Suppliers; Stocks plummet

      Andrea Lati
     23rd-Mar-2020
    Description:

    Moving into unchartered territory. Order activity for semiconductor equipment crashed 17 points amid growing fears of a pandemic-induced recession. The world economy is likely in a recession due to the accelerating shutdown of economic activity. We have cut the forecasts across the board in March to reflect the significant disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic in Electronics, ICs, and Equipment. Our current projection expects a big hit to the industry in 1H20 followed by a rapid recovery in the second half. If the recovery is delayed, the declines in Electronics, ICs, and Equipment will be far greater—see the next page for more details on the forecast scenarios. The Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) slid 1 point. Falling end-demand will halt the IC recovery and keep the IC market in the red in the near term. Capacity Utilization Rates: Utilization rates remain low due to overcapacity. Semiconductor sales recovered as a rise in prices broke the fall of units. Semiconductor Supply-Demand fell to Saturated last week as defensive buying from the Coronavirus paused. Memory hoarding from Korea COVID-19 fears ended. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19 Clawed back up to +5%. Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 63˚ F COVID-19 Flu sends it to Chilly. IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Fell to Saturated. Electronics Pricing Trend: Bottoming. Notebooks and CE turned up, Smartphones down. Coronavirus has had a deep negative impact on Integrated Circuit sales: Certainties: Coronavirus Pandemic, Macroeconomic Slowdown, 5G: Smartphone, Auto, Industrial, Win 7 EoL refresh, 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps, Memory Price Elasticity, Uncertainties: Ability of Central Banks to prevent economic, infection from Coronavirus, 2020 Elections in U.S. Strategy and Tactics: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why it failed. Has Moore’s Law slowed? Summaries: Coronavirus Semiconductor Watch: Coronavirus Semiconductor Market Watch: Last week’s IC Sales were up over its 5-year TMA in week+4 of the Coronavirus pandemic. Hoarding drove prices up enough to offset the drop in units and hold up revenues. VLSI did update its semiconductor value-stack forecast recently to account for the likely impact of the Coronavirus based on previous forecasts. The biggest outlook change was in the first quarter of 2020, where semiconductor shipments were cut by 1.0B units and sales by $2B due to the Coronavirus … The Coronavirus is now expected to cost Electronics shipments $26.4B in in the first quarter of 2020... 450mm: Why it failed… There are a lot of reasons one can point to for the semiconductor industry’s failure to bring 450mm silicon wafers to fruition. One is that a consensus of its urgency never emerged among the foundries and IDMs. Another was the thinly veiled opposition from the semiconductor equipment and materials industry. The same could also be said for the lack of consensus of wafer fab owners, as they all knew the history of first-to-a-new-wafer-size. But in the end it was the economics of Moore’s Law … So, has Moore’s Law slowed? The answer is it depends on exactly what you think Moore’s Law is. It means many things to many people, but to everyone it means some form of innovation. As the chart shows, what’s amazing about the industry-wide growth in areal density is the semiconductor industry is still above the trendline after 55-years! We’ve done an amazing job of delaying forever, as Gordon Moore told us to do: “No physical quantity can continue to change exponentially forever… Your job is delaying forever.” What’s Happening and What’s the Meaning: Nikon reorganizes its corporate structure. Intel’s Supplier Quality Awards announced. Lam Research formally launched its Sense.i™ etch platform and its dry resist process. KLA announced the Archer™ 750 overlay metrology system and the SpectraShape™ 11k optical CD metrology system. GLOBALFOUNDRIES announced its eMRAM had entered production of its 22FDX platform. Comments, Questions & Answers: Why is Intel lagging TSMC and Samsung on moving EUV to production, when they’ve been the one to push the hardest. What’s changed? Dan, Regarding your Coronavirus reports of wild IC price fluctuations, it’s my understanding that most of time lower prices come from an oversupply (supply/demand curve) but is that not the case now? 2019 Top Semiconductor Equipment Suppliers. VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices plummeted with the market again as fears surrounding COVID-19 intensified even more. VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index plunged 14.2% as all companies finished the week deep in the negative. VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index plunged 16.7%, Nikon bucked the trend, jumping 7%. VLSI’s EDA Stock Index plunged 13.6%. VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index fell 5.7% despite claiming five of the six top performers.

    Views: 1668
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors