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    SemiWEEK: Macroeconomic Impact of the Coronavirus: A new perspective; Stocks were mixed

      Andrea Lati
     4th-May-2020
    Description:

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    The sun is shining in some places, but are we out of the woods?
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment edged higher, jumping past 60 degrees
    • Equipment suppliers continue to see solid demand in Q2; however, order visibility in the second half of the year is very limited due to uncertainty from the COVID-19 fallout
    • Q1 sales for ICs are coming in much better than feared
    • The outlook in the second half remains challenging as the industry will grapple with growing inventories and the fallout from COVID-19.
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) extended its decline

    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    Semiconductor sales recovered for the third week in a row, peeking above 2019 levels for the first time, as COVID-19 adjustments dampened. Semiconductor Supply-Demand rose to Tight conditions. The 2Q20 Nowcast improved substantively. But with only 3 weeks, this is moving a lot.
    Semi Market results from last week:
    Semiconductor sales recovered for the second week
    • Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19: Jumped up to -4%
    • Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Chilly, Cooler
    • IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Balanced
    • Electronics Price Trend: Rising

    Chip History Center
    Time Line: Applied Materials - AME 8100 Batch Etcher: The blockbuster that remapped the etch market ushering in the modern era of etching. Applied celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2017.
    Exhibits: Nikon - 25 Years of Innovation: Traces the history of Nikon Steppers ending with early feasibility work on immersion. Nikon celebrated its 100th anniversary in 2017.

    The Chip Insider
    Strategy and Tactics: Macroeconomic Impact of the Coronavirus: A new perspective.

    Summaries:
    Macroeconomic Impact of the Coronavirus: A new perspective… Back in the early phases of the Coronavirus I was optimistically convinced our industry would be driven into a “V” recovery based on the U.S. government’s response. The government did act along the lines of General George S. Patton’s advice that “A good plan, violently executed now is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.” More recently that bright view has darkened as the definition of a pessimist being an optimist with experience became me. The problem is that few, if any, of the plans were violently executed and as John Doerr once said, “Execution is Everything.” However, there has been a lack of execution that has been on multiple levels…

    Too-small-to-fail: In contrast to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ banking crisis of 2008-10 crisis, this time it’s an amorphous group of small businesses and the many people they hire. The longer businesses are separated from their employees, the longer it will take to restart the economy. So, the ‘V’ anticipated a few months ago is already turning into a ‘U’ and may well become an ‘elongated U.’ An eU would mean the slowdown in the semiconductor industry would spread into an unprecedented third year…
    Coronavirus Semiconductor Sales Watch: It’s been 11 weeks since the WHO declared the COVID-19 emergency. Over that time, the impact on the semiconductor industry was initially a classic shortage response, with prices soaring. Then demand evaporated as the market figured out this was no instantaneous hit like the Sendai Earthquake and that there would be few limitations on production out of wafer fabs. This reversed when the market learned production was being constrained by shutdowns of Asia-based test and packaging capacity due to quarantines in those areas. What emerged was a very volatile greed-fear cycle, as unit buys swung between inventory investing and divesting ranges. After 11 weeks, IC sales are within a … units and prices are … The depth of the … drop is similar to the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu …

    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices ended the week mixed while the market slipped.

    • Semiconductors 1%
    • Equipment -3%
    • EDA -4%
    • Electronic Materials 3%.

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index
    was led up 0.5% by MediaTek, JCET, and Kingpak Technology.
    IDM +0.7%
    Foundry & OSAT +3.7%
    Fabless & Fablite -0.8%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index fell 2.6% for the second week in a row, BESI came out on top.
    WFE -4.1%
    Test -1.0%
    Assembly +1.0%
    VLSI’s EDA Stock Index plunged 4.0%.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 3.1% by DuPont.
    Hottest Stocks: MediaTek, JCET, Kingpak Technology, DuPont, BESI, and Cabot Microelectronics

    Views: 1163
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors