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    SemiWEEK: HI Economics. TCI Guide to Forecasting Methodology. Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty; Stocks slipped

      Andrea Lati
     14th-Dec-2020
    Description:

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    Getting ready for 2021
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment cooled off for the second consecutive week, slipping to 81 degrees
    • Uncertainties about the year ahead remain
    o A surge in COVID-19 cases
    o China
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index started December with a bang

    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    Semiconductor sales hit their 1st $10B week at a >10% Y/Y gain in the 1st week of Dec. A slow W/W gain showed we were near the seasonal peak. Focusing on the Logic picture this week,13-week MAs show a recent acceleration as the segment headed into the holidays.
    Semi Market results from last week:
    • The 4Q20 Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: slid
    • Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Hot
    • IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight
    • Electronics Pricing Trend: are rising again, driven by the holidays & new COVID SiP orders.

    Chip History Center
    Time Line: Applied Materials - AME 8100 Batch Etcher: The blockbuster that remapped the etch market ushering in the modern era of etching. Applied celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2017.

    Exhibits: Nikon - 25 Years of Innovation: Traces the history of Nikon Steppers ending with early feasibility work on immersion. Nikon celebrated its 100th anniversary in 2017.

    The Chip Insider

    Strategy and Tactics: HI Economics. The Chip Insider's Guide to Forecasting Methodology. Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty.


    More on HI Economics: Part of the problem with Heterogeneous Integration has nothing to do with economics. Here I look at the marketing problem of not having a common language and nomenclature is causing in the media and investment community. One of the things I find so difficult about it is there is no common word for it, Heterogeneous and Disaggregated are too difficult to say, much less spell; while “chiplets” sound like it’s a children’s block-building game. Heterogeneous brings to mind an image of academics in an Ivory Tower debating which long and many syllabled word would best describe what it was. Obviously they were not in marketing, which would seek a word for which the description was instantly understandable in the word itself.
    The Chip Insider’s Guide to Forecasting Methodology: Recently I was asked to give a talk to some forecasting professionals who wanted to learn about how VLSI does it. The original question was formed as asking about the tools we use. I took it beyond this. I’ve been doing forecasting professionally since the mid-seventies. Over the years, I’ve learned accuracy is far more about the mind than it is about the tools. It
    was so well received that I thought I’d write it up. I hope you enjoy it… Key Concepts in Forecasting: The 1st rule of forecasting is you will be wrong. If you happen to be right, it was only random chance. The job of the forecaster is not to be right, but to be less-wrong ... to minimize error. The 2nd rule is … The 1st law of forecasting is: Get the sign wrong and you'll soon be gone…
    Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty: Know which is the basis behind any decision that needs to be made

    Semiconductor Manufacturing:
    Electronics Outlook
    • Changes since last forecast
    • Electronics Trends
    • Smartphone, Tablets, PC, Server Units
    • Electronics Segment Positions
    • VLSI’s view

    Semiconductor Stocks


    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices slipped this week along with the market. Equipment stocks hit another yearly high, for the sixth consecutive week..
    • Semiconductors -3%
    • Equipment +0%
    • EDA +0%
    • Electronic Materials -1%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index fell 3.3%, taking a breather after five consecutive weeks of gains. SMIC came out on top followed by Samsung Electronics.
    IDM -2.9%
    Foundry & OSAT -3.4%
    Fabless & Fablite -3.5%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 0.4% by ASM International, Kulicke & Soffa, and Nikon. Which were three of the top performers this week.
    WFE +0.1%
    Test -1.8%
    Assembly +1.7%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock Index were flat this week.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index decreased 1.1%, BASF was the biggest winner.
    Hottest Stocks: SMIC, ASM International, Kulicke & Soffa, BASF, Nikon, and Samsung Electronics.

    Views: 544
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors