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    SemiWEEK: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it; Semiconductor Equipment Outlook; Stocks soar

      Andrea Lati
     8th-Jun-2020
    Description:

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services

    It's been a green spring, but the view is too close

    Summer is here for equipment suppliers as order activity for semiconductor equipment hit a warm 75 degrees

    Subcon/Advanced Packaging and Memory recorded the biggest gains while SOC Mobile and Computing hovered at 80 degrees

    Micron raised its outlook for the current quarter by $400M due to strong pricing trends for NAND and DRAM and improving supply chain conditions.

    While Micron's upgrade is a huge positive for the current trends in the memory market, tumbling DRAM spot prices remain a nagging concern and something to watch closely in the second half of the year.

    VLSI's Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) decline is declerating

    Semiconductor Analytics

    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:

    Semiconductor sales blew past 2018 levels with the COVID-19 slump in the rearview mirror with the WAHE restructuring fueling demand. The 2Q20 sales Nowcast continued to improve. All segments improved materially.

    Semi Market results from last week:

    Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19: Jumped up to +21%

    Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Temperate, Warmer

    IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight

    Electronics Price Trend: Soaring

    Chip History Center

    People: Mark Bohr: It's 2002… Intel will become the first to crack 90nm, making semiconductors the first nanotechnology industry of scale. These integrated circuits or ICs were well past the 100-nanometer border that defines where nanotechnology starts. Thus, Intel was leading the industry from microchips to nanochips. It would take a lot of manufacturing breakthroughs for the team of engineers and scientists at Intel to pull this off, including SiGe. In doing so, it would raise Intel TMG into the pantheon of legendary solid-state research centers. Mark Bohr, Intel Fellow, Director of Process Architecture and Integration discusses the launch of Intel's then new P1262 90nm Process in this historic interview.

    People: ATE was undergoing major change in the early 2000s as IC densities on SoC semiconductors had passed the point where they could be economically and effectively tested functionally. Tester prices and test times had exploded. Two great debates ensued over: 1) a move by chip makers to commoditize testers with an open standard and 2) structural test versus functional test. Originally taped in 2003, Paul Magliocco discusses how he saw these issues and how they would affect his start-up, Nextest. The company would later be bought by Teradyne in what would prove to be a very fruitful merger, due in part to the architectural decisions Nextest was making in the early 2000s.

    The Chip Insider

    Strategy and Tactics: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it.

    Forecasting 2021: How to approach it. What won't work, what will, and what it means. Here’s the thing: Using conventional econometric or time-series models based on historical data simply won't work this time because there are too many outside-the-sample events for a complex model to comprehend. I count five. The first three are powerful forces pulling business to the downside, while the last two are powerful forces pulling business to the upside. None of these have been seen before, which is why conventional forecast models won't work. All of these are disruptive to a degree that statistical weights and algorithms have little meaning beyond the business models they are constructed around. Simpler, heuristic models have better odds of success.

    Why the WAHE could be bigger than you think: Using heuristic models, we assess the new demand potential that the Work-At-Home Economy can create for the semiconductor equipment industry. The results are huge: double-digit increases in the short-term and triple-

    digit increases over the long-term at levels comparable to what China has added to demand. That speaks to the value proposition that

    much more investment is needed to get to a new normal. Meanwhile, welcome to the WAHE, the new abnormal that will drive investment.

    A Personal Thank You: I discovered grief is two-sided… a page in your book of life. On one side is pain and on the other is love. The more love, the greater the pain. It is the pain that obscures our view of the love. Living through grief is about turning the page to see the love.

    Equipment & Emerging Markets

    Semiconductor Equipment Outlook

    Semi Manufacturing has shown exceptional resiliency

    Forecast Scenarios

    Changes since last forecast

    Semi Equipment Trends

    Long-term trends

    VLSI's view

    Semiconductor Stocks

    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices soared this week along with the market. EDA stock index hit a new yearly high for the third week.

    Semiconductors 9%

    Equipment 12%

    EDA 1%

    Electronic Materials 6%.

    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 9.0% by MaxLinear, ON Semiconductor, and Amkor.

    IDM +11.2%

    Foundry & OSAT +9.9%

    Fabless & Fablite +8.3%

    VLSI's Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 11.6% by Veeco Instruments and ASM International.

    WFE +11.6%

    Test +11.4%

    Assembly +10.8%

    VLSI's EDA Stock Index increased 0.6% to a new yearly high.

    VLSI's Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 5.5% by BASF.

    Hottest Stocks: MaxLinear, ON Semiconductor, Veeco Instruments, ASM International, Amkor, and BASF.

    Views: 1336
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors