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    SemiWEEK: Downturn Warning Signs. Excessive CapEx Exuberance; Stocks fell

      Andrea Lati
     Oct 11, 2021

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    On the top of the world
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment edged higher, jumping past 110 degrees
    • Equipment suppliers will be unable to fulfill all the demand from chipmakers this year due to capacity constraints
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance continued to trend lower
    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    Semiconductor sales closed in on $12B, another all-time weekly record. The IC weather cooled 2?F last week, with the cooler weather coming to all markets. Semiconductor Sales are closing in on a record $600M in 2021 with 24% growth. Logic will pass $250B and DRAM is close to $100B. Focusing on Auto ICs, MAs have risen to ~65% higher than 2020 – and it’s not the hottest segment. VLSI’s current forecast is for it to finish the year up 38%, which is up 4% from Sept’s projection.
    IC Wafer Fab Production continued to ride a capacity ceiling, as wafer price inflation hit 40% Y/Y.
    VLSI’s IC Supply/Demand indices held at Tight last week with OSAT dropping a notch and More than Moore Foundry falling two. DRAM, More Moore, and Analog & Power weakened, while NAND, IDM, & Auto ICs were stronger.
    The 3Q21 Supply/Demand NowCast closed out in Balanced conditions.
    Electronics’ Retail Prices are bottoming with shortages creating strength across the board.

    Strategy and Tactics: Downturn Warning Signs. Excessive CapEx Exuberance.

    Comments, Questions & Answers: IBM's Telum processor. DRAM Contract vs Spot Prices. Downturn Warning Signs. Excessive CapEx Exuberance.

    What’s Happening and What’s the Meaning: SIA Webinar: Unprecedented Challenges, Historic Opportunities: The State of the U.S. Semiconductor Industry. It includes talks from the SIA’s Falan Yinug, John Pitzer of Credit Suisse, Dan Hutcheson of VLSI Research, and Dale Ford of the Electronic Components Industry Association.

    The Chip History Center: Why the Giant Computer Companies were Gobbled Up: It was Moore’s Law. The advent of VLSI levels of integration ... Intel: It wasn't always easy: Most assume it has always been paint by the numbers for Intel … Maxims reloaded — Needs and benefits always win out over wants and features.
    ChipChirps™ — VLSI's Semiconductor Analytics report and more. YMTC tall NAND, Analog & Power Markets, and Tax hikes slowing semi stocks. ChipChirps are short notifications from VLSI’s analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI’s App for Android and iOS.

    Chip History Center
    How Japan Lost its Semiconductor Industry: The 5 strategic causes behind the long-term failure of Japan’s Semiconductor industry are covered in this paper. Some were of their own making. Others were macroeconomic tsunamis that could not have been avoided. But they could have been adapted to, as some companies did. It also provides the lessons that can be learned from the errors made.
    How Power, Performance, Area, and Cost relate to Moore's Law: Sunlin Chou discusses how managing these parameters have evolved over time in this 2004 conversation. As semiconductor chips get larger it would seem they would consume more power. Learn why this is not the case. Also, the new issues that were emerging as semiconductors crossed the 100nm barrier.

    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices fell this week after the release of a weaker than expected jobs report.
    • Semiconductors -1.4%
    • Equipment -3.8%
    • Electronic Materials -1.5%
    • EDA -2.8%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index decreased this week, Xilinx was this week’s biggest winner along with MediaTek, AMD, and Infineon who claimed four of the top stock spots this week.
    IDM -2.5%
    Foundry & OSAT -3.0%
    Fabless & Fablite -0.1%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index plummeted again this week, Veeco Instruments and Teradyne being the only companies to finish in positive territory.

    WFE -2.4%
    Test -4.6%
    Assembly -8.1%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock fell this week.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index decreased this week, despite gains from DNP, DuPont de Nemours, and Shin-Etsu.
    Hottest Stocks: Xilinx, MediaTek, AMD, DNP, DuPont de Nemours, and Infineon.

    Views: 656
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors

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