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    SemiWEEK: The enigmatic mystery of the auto shortage. Frenemies - How Intel beat Japan; Stocks rocketed

      Andrea Lati
     Aug 30, 2021

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    Everyone's gulping their share of orders
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment continued to heat up, hitting another high for the year
    • Temperatures edged higher in all segments and are now well into the triple-digit range
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance extended its decline amid DRAM weakness
    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    IC Wafer Fab Production was flat last week, as the 300mm eq wafer price premium dipped to +5% Y/Y. Semiconductor weekly sales were flat W/Q and down for the week. The IC weather cooled 2?F for the week. Focusing on Auto ICs, MAs have cooled from the 80+% July levels to just under 70% Y/Y. Sales are also well above 2019, indicating this is more than a “spot” shortage. The current forecast is for it to finish out 2021 at 33% Y/Y. W/Y growth continued to rise for DRAM last week but it rolled over for NAND, Logic, and Analog & Power.

    VLSI’s IC Supply/Demand indices dropped again, this time to Saturated. Foundry joined DRAM in Glut conditions with More Moore getting hit harder than More than Moore, while OSAT fell to Saturated and Auto to Loose. NAND, IDM, and Analog & Power slid. The 3Q21 Supply/Demand NowCast for DRAM held at Saturated.

    Electronics’ Retail Prices continued to trend down, driven primarily by mobile & consumer.

    Strategy and Tactics: The enigmatic mystery of the auto shortage. Frenemies - How Intel beat Japan.

    The auto shortage is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma: Why the enigmatic mystery of the ongoing auto shortage is a combination of various factors forming a perfect storm that has haunted the industry for 9 months. With IC sales following Auto sales, while production is not, where are all those ICs going? … We could be looking at a classic shortage-respond-glut train wreck for which the semiconductor industry is so famous. The alternative scenario is the spot shortages heal, filling out IC car production kits, and car production ramps rapidly to fill demand, while bringing auto inventory back up to normal levels. Honestly, I don’t know the answer, but I put the odds at 40:60 between the two…
    What’s Happening and What’s the Meaning: Water shortage on Colorado river has the media freaked out about fabs in Arizona. Samsung’s next fab in New York … Really?

    Dan’s China Strategy Book Shelf: The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury is the most hawkish perspective of any writer I’ve read so far. He has a deep practical background having served …

    Chip History Center
    People: Sunlin Chou on Intel's R&D Pipeline. The history of semiconductor research at Intel is discussed in this 2004 conversation. Learn how Intel systematically turned research into gold with the approach they developed called the "pipeline." At the core of Sunlin's values is the belief that all problems should be dealt with systematically and this is exactly how he dealt with the issue of reviving Intel's prowess after the 1985 debacle …
    Power, Performance, Cost, and Moore's Law - How Power, Performance, and Cost relate to Moore's Law are discussed in this 2004 conversation with Sunlin Chou, who was then Senior VP and GM, Technology & Manufacturing Group at Intel. Sunlin discusses how managing these parameters has evolved over time. As semiconductor chips get larger with more transistors it would seem that they would consume more power. Learn why this is not the case here. Topics covered include: How leakage currents can rise faster than drive currents as transistors get smaller. Where the power is being consumed in system. The new issues that were emerging as semiconductors crossed the 100nm barrier.

    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices rocketed this week with 52 companies up and only 2 companies down. EDA Stock Index and the S&P 500 also rose to fresh new yearly highs.
    • Semiconductors +4.5%
    • Equipment +7.1%
    • Electronic Materials +4.0%
    • EDA +4.2%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index was led up by SkyWater Technology who was this week’s biggest winner. Amkor, ON Semiconductor, TSMC, UMC, NVIDIA, and Xilinx were also top performers this week.
    IDM +4.4%
    Foundry & OSAT +10.8%
    Fabless & Fablite +3.9%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index soared 7.1% this week with significant gains from Onto Innovation followed by FormFactor and Veeco Instruments.

    WFE +8.4%
    Test +8.3%
    Assembly +3.7%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock was led up by Synopsys.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up by CMC Materials.
    Hottest Stocks: SkyWater Technology, Onto Innovation, FormFactor, Amkor, Veeco Instruments, and CMC Materials

    Views: 510
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors

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