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    SemiWEEK: U.S. Semiconductor Stocks hit by tax plans. DRAM Price canary stops singing; WFE Outlook 4Q2021; Stocks slipped

      Andrea Lati
     Sep 20, 2021

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    Still climbing up
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment jumped by another point, hitting triple-digits for the first time this year
    • The increase was driven by Memory, which jumped nearly two points
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance declined at a slower rate
    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    Semiconductor sales blew past Dec 2020’s record week and was just short of $11B. The IC weather cooled 1?F for the week, with More-than-Moore foundry cooling back to Hot. Last week, Logic had the highest W/W growth, followed by Auto and Analog & Power. DRAM & NAND were down. Focusing on NAND, MAs have caught back up to 2020 levels. VLSI’s current forecast is for it to finish the year at 20% growth.

    IC Wafer Fab Production was up 27% Y/Y last week, as wafer prices surged +20%.

    VLSI’s IC Supply/Demand indices were Balanced last week with Foundry rising another notch to Balanced, driven by improvements for both More Moore and MtM. DRAM, NAND, OSAT, and Auto tightened while conditions continued to loosen for IDM and Analog & Power. The 3Q21 Supply/Demand NowCast held at Balanced

    Electronics’ Retail Prices continued to trend down.

    Strategy and Tactics: U.S. Semiconductor Stocks hit by tax plans. DRAM Price canary stops singing.

    U.S. Semiconductor Stocks hit by U.S. corporate tax plans: President Biden’s plans to raise corporate taxes from 21% to 28% look to be having collateral damage on America’s semiconductor industry, as investors plan for the earnings hit by moving their money to non-US companies… This is a job for the SIA and SEMI to tackle.

    DRAM Contract vs Spot Prices: Has one of the canaries in the coal mine stopped singing? … Well, they haven’t been singing recently while July’s DRAM contract-prices went in the opposite direction. This is very concerning because contract prices typically lag spot prices. When they fly too far away contract prices will hunt down spot Ppb, as you can see the Kestrel of ASPs dive on the spot-price canary in December 2020. When the shortage hit, they actually led them up. It’s so important that Andrea Lati highlighted it this week on VLSIinsiders, which is available on VLSI’s app. But here’s the thing: Price-per-bit is fundamentally different than Price-per-package ASPs. It’s an apple to crated-apples comparison. The fact that indexed contract prices were higher in January – in the middle of the great chip shortage – is a hint that something is wrong with the metrics, not the market… When Contact ASPs are corrected to Ppb levels, the contract price correction can be seen to overshoot spot prices in its December dive…

    The Semiconductor Market Stack: Why GDP, not electronics is the new driver … chips have broken out of the electronics box.

    Dan’s China Strategy Book Shelf: The China Mission: George Marshall's Unfinished War, 1945-1947 by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan

    Chip History Center
    People: Scott Kulicke, discusses the challenges going forward in semiconductor packaging and assembly in this 2004 interview. Topics covered include: productivity, effect of new wafer fab processes, early efforts to replace gold wire with copper wire, flip-chip’s failure to take hold, China’s rise, ASE passing Amkor, offshoring semiconductor equipment manufacturing from the United States. And more.
    30 Years Ago: Time Line: February 21, 1987 - TSMC Founded
    The founding of TSMC on February 21, 1987 marks an earthquake that would move the tectonic plates that formed the global structure of semiconductor industry. That earthquake was the formation of what would come to be called ‘the pure-play foundry’ based on Morris Chang’s vision that the only way to build a business out of selling finished wafers to chip companies was to base it on the strict principle of never competing with a customer …
    Semiconductor Manufacturing:
    • WFE Outlook
    • Semi Manufacturing in hyper-growth
    • Changes since last forecast
    • Strong business environment for WFE
    • Customer spending outlook
    • Sustained WFE Growth
    • VLSI’s view

    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices slipped with the market this week, the one bright spot was the Equipment Stock Index which hit a new yearly high.
    • Semiconductors -0.8%
    • Equipment +0.4%
    • Electronic Materials -0.4%
    • EDA -2.0%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index slipped this week despite strong gains from On Semiconductor, MagnaChip Semiconductor, and Texas Instruments.
    IDM +1.8%
    Foundry & OSAT -4.1%
    Fabless & Fablite -0.5%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up by KLA and Applied Materials. Investors are counting on the current chip shortage boosting equipment companies future revenues as major semiconductor companies make commitments to add capacity.

    WFE +0.9%
    Test -0.2%
    Assembly -1.8%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock fell this week.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index slipped this week, JSR and Shin-Etsu came out on top.
    Hottest Stocks: KLA, JSR, On Semiconductor, MagnaChip Semiconductor, Shin-Etsu, Applied Materials, and Texas Instruments.

    Views: 605
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors

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