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    SemiWEEK: What happens when itís over; WFE Outlook; Stocks rose

      Andrea Lati
     20th-Apr-2020
    Description:

    Bracing for a rocky road ahead. Order activity for semiconductor equipment leveled off in the second week of April, hovering at 58 degrees. Although chipmakers and equipment suppliers are expected to post solid results in Q1, the outlook for the remainder of the year remains challenging as the impact of COVID-19 weighs on the demand side. Overall demand is expected to drop in the coming months due to ongoing global recession and double ordering. The Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) continued to warn.
    Semiconductor sales recovered slightly as we moved into the 1st full week of April and the Supply-Demand situation held. However, sales were still well below the same week in 2019 with DRAM and Auto ICs being hit hardest and S-D in OSATs is a significant concern. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Opened the 2Q20 deeply down. Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 64˚ F Chilly. IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Balanced. Electronics Pricing Trend: Rising. Notebooks, Smartphones, and Consumer Electronics have a seasonal inversion driven by WAHE (Work-at-Home Economy).
    What happens when it’s over. What happens when it’s over: I’m sure you’ve seen the bad news: jobless claims in the United States totaled 6.6M last week, which works out to 10% unemployment and is already at peak levels seen in the 2008 Great Recession and this total is likely to get worse before it gets better. Now there are some big differences between now and then: the U.S. is going to inject into the economy amounts that equal 96% of the Government’s budget and is 20% of the real GDP that was expected for 2020.
    This is far greater than what was spent in 2008 and the money is going to go far better places where it will be spent — not parked like back then. But it’s even bigger than that. The Coronavirus is changing history in ways we haven’t seen since WWII. The difference will be that instead of the auto being at the center of it all, it will be the semiconductor. I show you why in this Chip Insider. Decision Time is Here: April is a very critical month of the year, because OEMs and Fabless companies need to commit to the Christmas build cycle now. So … Coronavirus Semiconductor Sales Watch: … Looking at total quarterly, monthly, and four-week moving averages, it’s clear we’ve moved back into a recession… The bottom line is the Coronavirus has put the semiconductor industry in recession territory. But, while in the range, it will take at least another quarter to turn into a full-blown recession.
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices continued to rebound as optimism abounds after talks about reopening the economy have started, though no concrete details have been released. Semiconductors 4%, Equipment 5%, EDA 12%, Electronic Materials 0%. VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 4% by AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC. VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 5.2% by Advantest. VLSI’s EDA Stock Index was led up 11.7% by Synopsys and Cadence. VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 0.2% by Tokyo Ohka. Hottest Stocks: AMD, Synopsys, NVIDIA, TSMC, Cadence, and Advantest.

    Views: 1425
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors