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    SemiWEEK: What history tells us about the next slowdown; Stocks rose

      Andrea Lati
     Sep 13, 2021

    Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI.

    Chip Market Research Services
    Steadily building next year's nest
    • Order activity for semiconductor equipment held steady at a sizzling 109 degrees
    • Equipment suppliers are scrambling to add more capacity as equipment availability remains a major issue for chipmakers
    • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance extended its decline
    Semiconductor Analytics
    Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
    Semiconductor sales almost beat Dec 2020’s record week of $10.4B. The IC weather warmed 2?F for the week, with More-than-Moore foundry rising to Humid. Focusing on DRAM, MAs have picked up again after cooling in Jul and Aug. VLSI’s current forecast is for DRAM growth to finish the year at 39%. Last week, DRAM & NAND had the highest growth, followed by Auto ICs, Analog & Power, and Logic. All were at double-digit levels and have remained so for 3 weeks running IC Wafer Fab Production was up 21% Y/Y last week, as wafer prices surged +16%.

    VLSI’s IC Supply/Demand indices held at Balanced with Foundry rising to Loose, driven by improvements for both More Moore and MtM. OSAT and Auto tightened. DRAM and NAND held flat, while conditions loosened for IDM and Analog & Power. The 3Q21 Supply/Demand NowCast for DRAM dipped to Glut and Foundry to Loose.

    Electronics’ Retail Prices continued to trend down but tablets & consumer picked up.

    Strategy and Tactics: What history tells us about the next slowdown.
    A Cyclical History of the Semiconductor Equipment Industry: What it tells us about the next slowdown. When you look at the industry’s cyclical history several patterns emerge: There have been 13 recessive growth periods since the Integrated Circuit market emerged in 1963. That’s an average of one every 4.3-years… But before you breathe a sigh of relief that the height of the flight has little do with the depth of the dive… All it means is that there is truth in the cry at the dawn of a downturn that “this time it’s different.” Downturns are not caused by upturns; they are caused by imbalances in the economic stack that grows in upturns. The devil is in the details of each cycle. The most important issues are the coincidence of external events and technology peaks, or the lack thereof. When one focuses on each cycle, what emerges most often is one or more random events that pull the trigger. Greed turns to fear as lack of confidence grows and then a cascade of decisions occurs, slowing markets down. It’s chaotic attractors and emergent behavior in real life. So, let’s start by looking at… Finally, there can be no question that semiconductors are essential in the 21st century. As President Biden said, “Everything runs on chips.” Yes, there have been and will be cycles. But we always get through them. We’ve gone through the calamities, technology disrupters, financial crises, and even pandemics; and yet here we are today, larger than ever.

    Dan’s China Strategy Book Shelf: The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China translated by Ralph D. Sawyer is essential if you want to understand how they compete and the underpinnings of their strategic and tactical thought. It’s like needing to read Napoleon, Machiavelli and Clausewitz to understand Western Strategy. The Seven Military Classics are from the Warring States Period (-402 to -220 CE) and includes Sun-tsu’s Art of War (which I assume you’ve read in no small measure because it was made famous in the movie Wall Street). Moreover, every Chinese leader is brought up on these books…

    Chip History Center
    People: Mark Bohr: It’s 2002… Intel will become the first to crack 90nm, making semiconductors the first nanotechnology industry of scale. These integrated circuits or ICs were well past the 100-nanometer border that defines where nanotechnology starts. Thus, Intel was leading the industry from microchips to nanochips. It would take a lot of manufacturing breakthroughs for the team of engineers and scientists at Intel to pull this off, including SiGe. In doing so, it would raise Intel TMG into the pantheon of legendary solid-state research centers. Mark Bohr, Intel Fellow, Director of Process Architecture and Integration discusses the launch of Intel's then new P1262 90nm Process in this historic interview. Intel at 90nm.
    Paul Magliocco: ATE was undergoing major change in the early 2000s as IC densities on SoC semiconductors had passed the point where they could be economically and effectively tested functionally. Tester prices and test times had exploded. Two great debates ensued over: 1) a move by chip makers to commoditize testers with an open standard and 2) structural test versus functional test. Originally taped in 2003, Paul Magliocco discusses how he saw these issues and how they would affect his start-up, Nextest. The company would later be bought by Teradyne in what would prove to be a very fruitful merger, due in part to the architectural decisions Nextest was making in the early 2000s. New Reality for Test Structural vs Functional Test Open ATE Architecture: ATE Executive View.
    Semiconductor Stocks
    VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices rose this week with Equipment and Material stock indices hitting fresh new yearly highs.
    • Semiconductors -1.0%
    • Equipment +2.4%
    • Electronic Materials +2.7%
    • EDA -0.2%

    VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index decreased this week despite strong gains from Analog Devices, Panasonic, JCET, and ON Semiconductor.
    IDM -0.9%
    Foundry & OSAT -1.7%
    Fabless & Fablite -1.2%
    VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up by TEL, Nikon, Advantest, and ASM International. TEL was this week’s biggest winner.

    WFE +3.2%
    Test +2.5%
    Assembly -1.3%

    VLSI’s EDA Stock slipped this week, Cadence came out on top.
    VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up by Tokyo Ohka and Shin-Etsu.
    Hottest Stocks: TEL, Nikon, Advantest, Tokyo Ohka, ASM International, and Shin-Etsu.

    Views: 581
    Domain: Electronics
    Category: Semiconductors

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