February 19, 2021 — Strategy and Tactics: Consistent Semiconductor Equipment Market Growth has returned WildPhotons: There is no easy way from the earth to the stars...
G. Dan Hutcheson
Why Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Market Growth Returned: And why the future may be brighter than you think. When analysts attempt to forecast markets, they typically run regressions of macro factors such as the economy, electronics, and semiconductors... Regression assumes constancy of statistical relationships ... Any cursory look at real data blows this assumption right out of the water. Over the last decade it became popular to believe semiconductors and chip equipment markets had become tightly coupled to the macroeconomy.
But then COVID-19 blew this out of the water and the term 'macro-decoupling' became popular with the added assumption it won't last... While this may have proved right in the short-term, I am no longer sure it is the whole story. Macro-decoupling does not explain why the 10-year average annual growth in the semiconductor equipment market rose from a 3% bottom in 2009 to 15% in 2019.
Sometimes single-event shocks to the system hide far more systematic changes to relationships buried deep in the depths of the data. I believe this is one of those times and that the effect is far more fundamental than a simple probabilistic change between data series. If this is the case, there also needs to be fundamental changes in strategic decision making by senior executives...
ChipChirpsTM — VLSI's Semiconductor Analytics report and more. Focusing on Auto ICs this week, the 13-week MA is declining as spot shortages and production cuts slow total IC buying. Segment Growth remains highest in Analog & Power, followed by NAND, Logic, and DRAM... ChipChirps are short notifications from VLSI's analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI's App for Android and iOS.
VLSIinsiders' cloudside chat videos:New: Feb 17 More pain for Auto makers, Can the semiconductor equipment industry grow 20% in 2021?
Jan 27: Deals slowing, China, Equipment Shortages, Auto IC shortage
Jan 13: Whisper WFE growth, Intel's CEO.
Jan 6: First look at 2021.
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