April 16, 2021 — Strategy and Tactics: Government wafer fabs a Glut? WildPhotons: Courage...
G. Dan Hutcheson
Summaries: How many government-subsidized wafer fabs does it take to create a capacity glut: This is almost a "how many xxx does it take to screw in a lightbulb" joke. But it's no joke and is a serious concern for everyone. There are rampant fears of double ordering being rampant throughout the industry and government-subsidized wafer fabs adding fuel to the fire. Now we know that at least 24 countries can afford to build a wafer fab if they wanted to... If we convert VLSI's equipment forecast into GigaFab equivalents with all the WFE, Test, and Assembly equipment needed to support 2025's level of production it actually falls short of the new fabs needed between now and then...The bottom line about all these fabs is...If they build them, they will fill them.
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