The Chip Insider's Guide to Forecasting Methodology
The Chip Insider®
December 4, 2020 — Strategy and Tactics: HI Economics. The Chip Insider's Guide to Forecasting Methodology. Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty.
WildPhotons: If you don't know where you want to go, then it doesn't matter ...
G. Dan Hutcheson
Summaries: More on HI Economics: Part of the problem with Heterogeneous Integration has nothing to do with economics. Here I look at the marketing problem of not having a common language and nomenclature is causing in the media and investment community. One of the things I find so difficult about it is there is no common word for it, Heterogeneous and Disaggregated are too difficult to say, much less spell; while "chiplets" sound like it's a children's block-building game. Heterogeneous brings to mind an image of academics in an Ivory Tower debating which long and many syllabled word would best describe what it was. Obviously they were not in marketing, which would seek a word for which the description was instantly understandable in the word itself.
The Chip Insider's Guide to Forecasting Methodology:
Recently I was asked to give a talk to some forecasting professionals who wanted to learn about how VLSI does it. The original question was formed as asking about the tools we use. I took it beyond this. I've been doing forecasting professionally since the mid-seventies. Over the years, I've learned accuracy is far more about the mind than it is about the tools. It was so well received that I thought I'd write it up. I hope you enjoy it... Key Concepts in Forecasting: The 1st rule of forecasting is you will be wrong. If you happen to be right, it was only random chance. The job of the forecaster is not to be right, but to be less-wrong ... to minimize error. The 2nd rule is ... The 1st law of forecasting is: Get the sign wrong and you'll soon be gone...
Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty: Know which is the basis behind any decision that needs to be made
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"Forecasting is difficult... Especially when it's about the future"