September 25, 2020 — Strategy and Tactics:Huang's, Moore's, and Koomey's Law. Where's the COVID cliff?
CHC: Moore's Law 50 years and we've only just begun. WildPhotons: What lies in our power to do ...
G. Dan Hutcheson
What's Happening and What's the Meaning:"Huang's Law Is the New Moore's Law, and Explains Why Nvidia Wants Arm" This article in the Wall Street Journal by Christopher Mims was a public relations coup of Titanic proportions for Nvidia. As Mims chose to define Nvidia's monumental gains in compute-performance-per-watt as a new trend replacing Moore's Law. Now, just maybe Nvidia's PR team is not as bright as its architecture gurus. There may have been something of a knowledge gap between Mims, Nvidia, and Jensen Huang about Moore's Law and Koomey's Law. But that should be easy to overcome. After all, there's the knowledge in your head, your smartphone's contact list, and for everything else ... there's Wikipedia. The relationship between device innovation and power saving was written about as far back as Gordon's 1965 paper that Carver Mead would later codify as Moore's Law; also, the relationship being an annual growth in density that lowered cost-per-transistor and brought new applications for chips. It was Stanford's Jon Koomey, who was the first to observe and codify the linear relationship between compute power and energy in 2010, which was later named a law after him.
Where's the COVID Cliff and other distruptive points to fall off of?
This is a question we keep getting asked. What has so many unnerved is we've moved into COVID's third strategic phase without any hint of a dark cloud, but there's consistent darkness for everyone at the edge of the two-quarter horizon. And COVID's not the only one. With that in mind, I thought I would come up with a list of potential Out-of-Sample disruptors and their likely occurance. Sneak preview: I think the COVID Cliff is on the 2022 horizon. I want to point out that one must use the Risk vs Uncertainty maxim to forecast them for your businesses.
Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty:
Know which is the basis behind any decision that needs to be made. Misreading situations of risk versus uncertainty in decision-making can result in bad decisions because the best method under one can be the worst under another. It's how the world's financial system almost collapsed between 2007 and 2008...
The Chip History Center: — Moore's Law: we've only just begun ...
ChipChirpsTM — VLSI's Semiconductor Analytics report: Semiconductor sales had a weak turn up last week... ChipChirps are short notifications from VLSI's analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI's App for Android and iOS: