Heterogeneous IC Economics. Moore's Law continues to live.

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    November 20, 2020 — Strategy and Tactics: Heterogeneous IC Economics. Moore's Law continues to live. WildPhotons: Success is not the sum, it is the product of our efforts ...
    G. Dan Hutcheson G. Dan Hutcheson
    Summaries:
    Heterogeneous Integration Economics: Heterogeneous integration is normally approached from a perspective of being an expensive package that pays for itself with greater performance, which brings higher prices... This is opening up a new vista of possible choices in design and has intersected with a need to put an incredible number of transistors in the package. However, the economic approach to determine which is more cost effective — single-die or heterogeneous multi-die — is very different than conventional single die or classical COO analysis... The economics of heterogeneous are design and yield dependent. So let's run through some numbers of how the economics have changed to make it possible... We take a 5nm design that will end up with a 600mm2 die and convert it to a heterogeneous 3-chip solution. The result is a huge cost savings.

    Why Moore's Law continues to live: Last week I showed why predictions of the death of Moore's Law have always been wrong due to 'what you see is all there is' bias. This week I am going to show why 'the Law' continues to thrive and how it drives equipment demand. What's made that possible, even though the cost of tools and fabs have risen exponentially, is the ability to pack more patterning pixels into given area... What's come out of multi-patterning is the lesson that Process Simplification and EPE (Edge Placement Error) have become ... It's well demonstrated customers will pay more for PPAC and-more recently the move into auto-for reliability... This also drives volume and application due to Jevon's corollary to the Law of Supply and Demand... This process has always translated into growth and profit for those on the vanguard of technology. Core technology advances are the roots of economic growth...

    Maxim: Innovation comes from leadership, not technology. It is a strategic error to believe that innovation is about technology, because it puts the cart before the horse. Technology is the result of innovation. Innovation is more about leaders who see a problem and then have the persistence to fail and start over many times before they are successful... The development of EUV is arguably the greatest technical achievement in human history. Bigger than the Manhattan Project ... value to humanity. It was far more difficult, as many of great stature tried, failed, and then dropped back into obscurity. One did not: ASML. It's a story of great leadership with dogged persistence by Martin van den Brink, Frits van Hout, and a cast of thousands...

    Heterogeneous IC Economics. Moore's Law continues to live.


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