Janurary 14, 2022 — Strategy and Tactics: TSMC's $44B CapEx Plan: Highway to a Glut? WildPhotons: The secret of a successful life...
G. Dan Hutcheson
Summaries: TSMC's $44B CapEx Plan: Highway to a Glut? With all the CapEx and new fab plans, I keep getting asked the question if we are headed to a glut as all of these companies keep upping the ante. Those asking the questions have only heard of gluts from the history of our industry...My stock answer has been to go through why things are different this time. This is always dangerous unless things are really different...And they are! Gluts in the past were the result of...Of these, only one is true today. As for TSMC's $44B, which in reality is $40-44B, on the surface it looks more like catch-up to underspending in the late 2010s as More Moore production waited for EUV and the transition from nanometer to angstrom scale devices. TSMC's share of CapEx in 2021 was STILL BELOW ITS 2015 SHARE! Meanwhile, More Moore capacity spending was well above 2015 levels in 2021. And don't forget TSMC also has to spend on More than Moore capacity additions, which have been in general decline since 2015.
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