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    What history tells us about the next slowdown

    The Chip Insider®
    September 3, 2021 — Strategy and Tactics: What history tells us about the next slowdown. WildPhotons: Ethics are a journey to objective truth, where...
    G. Dan Hutcheson G. Dan Hutcheson
    A Cyclical History of the Semiconductor Equipment Industry: What it tells us about the next slowdown. When you look at the industry's cyclical history several patterns emerge: There have been 13 recessive growth periods since the Integrated Circuit market emerged in 1963. That's an average of one every 4.3-years... But before you breathe a sigh of relief that the height of the flight has little do with the depth of the dive... All it means is that there is truth in the cry at the dawn of a downturn that "this time it's different." Downturns are not caused by upturns; they are caused by imbalances in the economic stack that grows in upturns. The devil is in the details of each cycle. The most important issues are the coincidence of external events and technology peaks, or the lack thereof. When one focuses on each cycle, what emerges most often is one or more random events that pull the trigger. Greed turns to fear as lack of confidence grows and then a cascade of decisions occurs, slowing markets down. It's chaotic attractors and emergent behavior in real life. So, let's start by looking at.. Finally, there can be no question that semiconductors are essential in the 21st century. As President Biden said, "Everything runs on chips." Yes, there have been and will be cycles. But we always get through them. We've gone through the calamities, technology disrupters, financial crises, and even pandemics; and yet here we are today, larger than ever.

    Dan's China Strategy Book Shelf: Water shortage on Colorado river has the media freaked out about fabs in Arizona. Samsung's next fab in The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China translated by Ralph D. Sawyer is essential if you want to understand how they compete and the underpinnings of their strategic and tactical thought. It's like needing to read Napoleon, Machiavelli and Clausewitz to understand Western Strategy. The Seven Military Classics are from the Warring States Period (-402 to -220 CE) and includes Sun-tsu's Art of War (which I assume you've read in no small measure because it was made famous in the movie Wall Street). Moreover, every Chinese leader is brought up on these books...

    What history tells us about the next slowdown

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