NAND Gigabyte Demand:Yesterday-Cannibalizing established markets:Photo film,Floppy disks,CDs,Video tape,DVDs, Very rapid growth; Today & Tomorrow-Creating new markets:
Smart phone,Tablet PC,Tier 0 storage:SSDs,Flash Arrays,Flash DIMMs & PCI, Growth is slower in new markets. But Change Is In The Air:Moving to 1Ynm or 1Znm is tricky!-Hi-k gate dielectric,Quad patterning,Yipes!; 3D comes next-Scales cost by adding layers,Needs technologies never used before,Likely to stumble, a LOT,Massive and costly tooling changes; This may stall production GB growth. Production Bit Growth:GB growth% = (Wafer Growth%,GB/Wafer Growth%), Two factors are used to pace production to market demand-Increasing wafer starts,Increasing GB/wafer; The first just takes money, the second has become a big challenge. Planar NAND Issues:Control Gate to Floating Gate capacitance-New structures,New materials; Lithography issues-Immersion lithography ($$$),Multiple patterning. How Do They Make 3D NAND!-Its a very complicated process-NAND strings made of thin-film transistors,Charge traps replace floating gates,Many production steps are totally new:Vertical channels,60:1 aspect-ratio holes,Polysilicon channels,Stairstep etch. A Timeline For Flash Obsolescence:2013: 1Ynm planar cell-Requires Hi-k gate dielectric, 2015: 1Znm planar cell-May be the last planar cell, 2017: 3D NAND in volume, 2019: 3D The Next Generation, 2021: Final (?) 3D generation, 2023: NAND yields to new technology.